Comments on: the debate and the spotlight of consensus http://www.oblomovka.com/wp/2008/10/15/the-debate-and-the-spotlight-of-consensus/ Casual Dismissals from Danny O'Brien Tue, 20 Jul 2010 11:15:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: Danny O'Brien http://www.oblomovka.com/wp/2008/10/15/the-debate-and-the-spotlight-of-consensus/comment-page-1/#comment-700 Danny O'Brien Mon, 27 Oct 2008 07:35:27 +0000 http://www.oblomovka.com/wp/?p=1223#comment-700 Well, I hate to toot fivethirtyeight.com's horn again, but it's a great model of not only a (hopefully) predictive blog looks like, but also one that is careful enough to put all its reasoning up front so the moment it stops being predictive, they should be able to realise it. I'm still amazed at how happily LGF and others are to wander off into the wildnerness, confident that it's just the evil mainstream media that is moving out of sync with them. To be honest, it's not really about accuracy, it's about throwing out a bunch of edgy predictions, more of which stick than others. There are no blogs that tell you tomorrow's news, but there are blogs that will tell you next year's sunday magazine articles. I think any blog that you told you years ago about the sub-prime crisis is probably going to have some extra predictive oomf for a while. I am enjoying http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/ for its scatter-gun paranoia about economic collapse. Will it all be true? Nah. Will I be reminded of posts on it in three months' time? I think so. Well, I hate to toot fivethirtyeight.com’s horn again, but it’s a great model of not only a (hopefully) predictive blog looks like, but also one that is careful enough to put all its reasoning up front so the moment it stops being predictive, they should be able to realise it. I’m still amazed at how happily LGF and others are to wander off into the wildnerness, confident that it’s just the evil mainstream media that is moving out of sync with them.

To be honest, it’s not really about accuracy, it’s about throwing out a bunch of edgy predictions, more of which stick than others. There are no blogs that tell you tomorrow’s news, but there are blogs that will tell you next year’s sunday magazine articles. I think any blog that you told you years ago about the sub-prime crisis is probably going to have some extra predictive oomf for a while. I am enjoying http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/ for its scatter-gun paranoia about economic collapse. Will it all be true? Nah. Will I be reminded of posts on it in three months’ time? I think so.

]]> By: James http://www.oblomovka.com/wp/2008/10/15/the-debate-and-the-spotlight-of-consensus/comment-page-1/#comment-699 James Mon, 27 Oct 2008 06:56:35 +0000 http://www.oblomovka.com/wp/?p=1223#comment-699 So which are the blogs with predictive value now? FWIW the feeling I'm getting from blogs and election results all over the world is a growing dissatisfaction with politicians on both sides of the fence - a pox on both houses, as it were. So which are the blogs with predictive value now? FWIW the feeling I’m getting from blogs and election results all over the world is a growing dissatisfaction with politicians on both sides of the fence – a pox on both houses, as it were.

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