Summary: we don’t know, even if some people claim to. Energy-industry sponsored researcher Mark Mills told everyone it was around 13% of the total U.S. electricity output, in stories like the famous Forbes cry “Dig more coal — the PCs are coming“. The figure was bandied around as a reason for the California blackouts – even as it become obvious that the crazy power prices were down to a faulty deregulatory market and outright manipulation by Enron. Now WSJ columnist David Wessel points to a competing Berkeley report that says its closer to 3%. And admits that the chances are we don’t know. But what’s important is to admit we don’t know.
“When people hear a statistic that matches their assumptions about how the world is going, they tend not to question it,” Mr. Koomey says. That was especially so during the euphoria-induced gullibility of the late 1990s, when WorldCom Inc.’s UUNet subsidiary started an avalanche with the catchy, but false, claim that Internet traffic was doubling every 100 days.
Old assumptions demand re-examination. Are forecasts for electricity demand proving wrong? Some issues demand debate. How much potential does conservation really have? What’s the wisest way to be sure we have enough energy for the future? What should government do or not do to ensure that our children and grandchildren live better? What is best left to the market?
But no good comes from pretending we know more than we do or from treating suppositions as truths.