2008-09-26»
my bland non-committal statement NAILED IT»
I was predicted a tie, and called it one afterwards, but everyone else seems to think Obama came ahead. That might actually have been because our stream went down during Obama’s “You were wrong” litany. We also ended up watching it in RealPlayer tiny thumbnail o’ vision, so I didn’t get to see a lot of the expressiveness that other I think many undecided voters pick up on — McCain as angry, Obama as … well, what was Obama seen as? I guess I’m going to have to tour the conservablogs to find out.
Mixed feelings on my part. One half of me is impressed at how substantive it got, and the other half was bored rigid through a lot of it. I do get the feeling that this is what Obama will be like as President, which intellectually I’m relieved about — he seemed a lot more considered and concessionary. On the more emotional side, I guess day-to-day Obama isn’t going to be some kind of magical Jed Bartlett constant rhetorician.
One of the more astute comments noted how McCain’s humor is all about punchlines, and Obama is all about the sarcasm and wry asides. I remember arguing with a friend who thought Obama couldn’t be funny, whereas one of the reasons I like him is that he’s one of the few politicians whose humour I enjoy: my friend is definitely a punchline kind of person. I wonder if it’s a generational matter?
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election backscatter»
Got to run to work, but … can’t… keep… away from today’s national trainwreck installment.
Yesterday looks like it must have been a terrible polling day for McCain. The average lead for the national daily polls so far is +4-+5 for Obama, and given that most of these polls are averaged over a number of days, that hides a big leap in yesterday’s polling.
Twitter has automated the “searching for McCain” trick I talked about yesterday, and spun off a separate site (reality has once again already transcended my lame predictions: you don’t even have to hit reload for this crack-delivery-mechanism). Selected twitters are going to be running under the debate feed tonight on Current.TV. That seems a bad idea, and calling it “hack the debate” sseems an even worse one. Whatever real-time filtering you can do, the distributed nation of Anonymous will still evade it. Could this be the debate that rickrolls a nation?
I’m probably playing some subconscious counter-over-under-expectations game for my man Obama, but I don’t think he’ll necessarily rule tonight as some are expecting. If people are looking for Reaganesque smackdowns or answers shorter than a paragraph, that’s not what he does. And I don’t think he’s going to suddenly drop the umming and ahhing (though I do expect at least one pre-hearsed speech-Obama moment). By contrast, McCain’s calm talking-point delivery is going to contrast with the crazy-like-a-fox image that electors currently have of him. I think what it might do is moderate the frenzy of today’s reactions a little. less of a debate bump, more of an attenuation. I think that Obama will maybe settle back to being up by two, and the pundits will scream that he lost the debate. Fingers crossed for something better.
On Palin: I feel for her in the Couric interview. She is way, way out of her depth, but outside of the most cringeworthy parts, she does okay as a generic politician answering generic points. In the clips where she completely loses it and just babbles incoherently, I think I recognise a little what’s going on. She launches into her answer, screws up a bit, and then a whole part of her head lights up going “OMG THIS IS KATIE COURIC”. There’s a real isolation when you’re on your own responding to a question in a big media organization. All around you, dozens of people bustle and operate in the most professional way possible, because they’re absolutely the top in their field. From the make-up to the lights person, they know exactly who they are and what they are doing. The person interrogating you is a familiar, famous, face. Sometimes that leads you to your own shell of professionalism: you click in and play the role. Other times, if you have even a smidgen of self-doubt, it kicks your feet away from you. You’re surrounded by people who know their job; and you know nothing about yours. It must be like a nightmare for her.
One thing is for sure: there’s going to be a hell of a market for the insider story of the McCain campaign, post-election.
Here’s the best (Obama-leaning) piece on what happened yesterday, for my mind:
It was McCain who had urged Bush to call the White House meeting but Democrats made sure Obama had a prominent part. And much as they complained later of being blindsided, the whole event turned out to be something of an ambush on their part—aimed at McCain and House Republicans.
“Speaking professionally,” said one Republican aide, “They did a very good job.”
When Bush yielded early to Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D- Nev.) to speak, they yielded to Obama to speak for the assembled Democrats. And it was Obama who raised the subject of the conservative alternative and pressed Paulson on what he thought of the idea.
House Republicans felt trapped — squeezed by Treasury, House Democrats and a bipartisan coalition in the Senate. And while McCain spoke surprisingly little after asking for the meeting, he conceded that it appeared there were not the votes for the core Paulson plan without major changes.
Obama’s done a great job of taking control of the Democrats. Of course, it helps when they think you’re going to win, rather than scrabbling to distance themselves from Bush, McCain and each other, as the Congress Republicans seem to be right now.
Oh, and my favourite quote so far on that version of the non-deal:
“Bush is no diplomat,” said a Democratic staffer, “but he’s Cardinal freaking Richelieu compared to McCain. McCain couldn’t negotiate an agreement on dinner among a family of four without making a big drama with himself at the heroic center of it. And then they’d all just leave to make themselves a sandwich.”
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